Media and Media Analysis for Politics and Trends

“Advertising doesn’t influence me.” As an ad professional, that line is something I hear constantly from people participating in focus groups. Focus groups are forums where people are shown ads and asked their opinion of the effectiveness of my clients’ TV ads. They’d look at our ads and tell us how they aren’t going to work because, they can see through the ad message. They’re too smart to be hoodwinked by their message.

And yet we see Mitt Romney, a man who was trailing by almost 10 points behind Newt Gingrich a week ago in Florida, is now up, way up, in almost every poll across the board. A turn around that the Gingrich camp seems resigned to.

What happened? Yes Newt stalled out in the two debates. But that doesn’t explain that big of a fortune change. Advertising does.

The Romney campaign has the media dollars to pump anti-Newt Gingrich ads in every media orifice in every major market in Florida. Orlando, Miami, Naples, etc. The Gingrich campaign, outspent by Romney by a ratio of at least 500%, does not.

In technical terms, that’s “You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck” for every “No, you suck.” So that with enough media buys to multiply that ratio to:

“You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck.” “No, you suck.” “You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck.” “No, you suck.” “You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck.” “No, you suck.” “You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck.” “No, you suck.” “You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck.” “No, you suck.” “You suck, you suck, you suck, you suck, you suck.” “No, you suck.”

The net takeaway that is likely to remain and nailed into your head is “You suck.” Or in this case, “Newt Gingrich sucks.” Simply through constant message pounding.

For most of us that pride ourselves on being able to make decisions based on careful fact gathering and deliberation, the fast poll changes seem to show that we, (or at least Florida) and be swayed but quick, emotionally damning, 30-second TV morsels. TV spots and radio, like most ads pressed to give a message, rarely have time to give you the facts, but try to impregnate you with a feeling (anger, fear, hope) that will motivate you to the desired decision.

And though this tactic may have destroyed the chance of a Gingrich win in Florida on Tuesday, it’s a referendum of Mitt Romney’s ability to buy an arsenal of media, rather than his policies. Nothing more. It’s easier to flood a state media market. It’s much harder to buy enough ads to flood more dense states or a nation.